A quick look at the numbers behind North America to Hawaii fares.

We get questions all the time about when to buy tickets to get the best price.  Our usual response is “That’s a REALLY hard question to answer correctly”.  One reason is because the answer is very dependent on data that needs a lot of analysis to understand.   Also, the answer is very different depending on airline, destination, origin, season of travel, and many other factors.

Let’s look at Hawaii, by the numbers.  In 2019, Airlines filed more than 22 MILLION fare price reductions from North America to Hawaii.  29% of those reductions occurred on FRIDAY, while 25% occurred on WEDNESDAY.  Monday, Tuesday & Thursday all had around 14% of the reductions.  Weekend days were boring, coming in at .93% between Saturday & Sunday changes.  22 Million is a lot, I hear you.  Just remember that not all changes happen to the lowest available price.  There are a lot of fares that most travelers never see until the cheapest prices are all taken.

We’re talking about the day of the week that the change in price occurs, not the day of the week that you should depart.  Most of the cheaper fares have a Sunday – Wednesday departure restrictions, and this typically holds true for trips to Hawaii as well.  If you have to leave on Saturday, you’re likely to pay a bit more because of these departure date/time restriction rule categories.  Don’t be discouraged though, prices and rules change all the time and if you’re diligent, you’ll find the deal that’s right for you!

Now that we’ve cleared that up, it’s also important to think about other types of changes.  Where new fares are added and old fares are increased.   Here’s a chart showing the percentage of fare price changes by day of the week.

You’ll notice that Friday has the greatest number of Reductions.  While there are still 18% of the increases on Friday, that’s nothing compared to the 25% on Wednesday, and almost 23% on Tuesday. 

Here are our conclusions based on North America to Hawaii fare price changes from the year 2019.

Saturday & Sunday:  You’re not going to see many price changes on Weekends.  This means pricing is probably safe and at least you shouldn’t expect any increases, typically.

Monday, Tuesday, & Thursday: While there are a fair amount of fare reductions (14.7% and 14.6% respectively), you’ll see more increases on these days than reductions (16.8% and 22.9% respectively).  Your city has a 29% chance to see a reduction, while you’re staring at a 39% chance at seeing an increase.

Wednesday: Wednesday sees almost 25% of all fare price changes!  So there’s a lot of activity here.  25% of the reductions means you stand a pretty good shot at seeing a fare price drop on Wednesdays.  However, with over 25% of increases and almost 23% of new prices being added on Wednesday, it feels a bit volatile.  But, with any deal, you’ll have to take your chances.  We highly suggest watching prices on Wednesday as it’s the second most likely day of the week that you’ll see your fare price drop!

Friday:  YES PLEASE!  With almost 30% of fare price reductions and only 18% of the increases, we feel like we’re going to have the most luck on FRIDAY!!  So, it’s the end of the week.  You’re ready for the weekend!  It’s time to keep an eye on those Hawaii fares you’ve been dreaming of because today feels like the day!  Friday has the HIGHEST number of fare price reductions AND new fares prices.  So get ready for something new this Friday!  

Conclusion:  Numbers are so much fun, and they tell us so many things; but the one thing they really can’t tell us is what day or date our favorite route will change.  You can come to your own conclusion, but we think Friday and Wednesday are your best bet of catching a deal.

If this article helped you, or you’d like to know more about other routes and the data that drives pricing trends, send us a message and let us know.  


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